tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2606 United RSW 06:57 IAH 08:46 8% 4% 1.1% no record
UA 1743 United RSW 14:04 IAH 15:40 12% 5% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 48m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 39m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 3h 29m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 9h 26m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:11 → IAH 11:25AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:59UA 2347 1h 41m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448 7h 55m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:59 → EWR 12:04UA 2477 1h 50m Newark EWR 13:54 → IAH 16:43UA 1830 8h 44m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:43 → IAH 15:54DL 1223 6h 06m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → IAH 20:14DL 2327 7h 58m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RSW 12:28 → ORD 14:53UA 2494 57m Chicago ORD 15:50 → IAH 18:35UA 2062 7h 07m 74% 39%
AmericanDetails → RSW 18:23 → DFW 20:22AA 2736 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 5h 01m 57% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON