tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3634 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3634 Southwest RSW 06:45 IND 09:24 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3610 Southwest RSW 17:25 IND 20:02 19% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952 4h 58m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 51m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 7h 16m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → RSW 12:45 → PHL 15:43AA 2365 2h 36m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 8h 00m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:59UA 2347 1h 48m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 6h 19m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → IND 17:36DL 2979 6h 48m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:02 → ORD 08:20AA 2613 3h 23m Chicago ORD 11:43 → IND 13:57AA 4713 · flown by Republic 7h 55m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → IND 19:03DL 3120 5h 47m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 18:12 → MSP 20:46DL 2219 54m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674 6h 04m 75% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON