Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2320 at 12:24 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2320 RSW 12:24 → JFK 15:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 8818 RSW 18:56 → JFK 21:50 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	RSW 12:24	JFK 15:32	15%	6%	1.8%	78%
B6 1530 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 16:41	JFK 19:37	31%	14%	1.9%	82%worse than usual
B6 8802 JetBlue	RSW 16:56	JFK 19:51	31%	15%	2.2%	no record
B6 8818 JetBlue	RSW 18:56	JFK 21:50	32%	14%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON