tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4916 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4916 Southwest RSW 06:00 MCO 07:01 3% 1% 1.6% no record
WN 245 Southwest RSW 19:05 MCO 20:05 22% 9% 3.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213 4h 21m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 15m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 4h 57m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → RSW 07:57 → CLT 09:58AA 2241 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 10:59 → MCO 12:39AA 1576 4h 42m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 1h 21m Dulles IAD 15:51 → MCO 18:22UA 2861 6h 23m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:59 → EWR 12:04UA 2477 2h 01m Newark EWR 14:05 → MCO 17:03UA 2215 8h 04m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:24 → MCO 13:09AA 2750 7h 08m 96% 68%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 32m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:23 → LGA 17:12DL 379 47m New York LGA 17:59 → MCO 21:15DL 2561 6h 52m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON