Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2613 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2613 RSW 06:02 → ORD 08:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2561 RSW 19:08 → ORD 21:26 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2613 American Flight history →	RSW 06:02	ORD 08:20	6%	3%	1.6%	93%
UA 2347 United Flight history →	RSW 08:44	ORD 10:59	6%	4%	1.1%	94%
UA 2494 United Flight history →	RSW 12:28	ORD 14:53	23%	14%	1.6%	89%worse than usual
AA 2437 American Flight history →	RSW 11:50	ORD 14:06	33%	10%	3.8%	33%
UA 2472 United Flight history →	RSW 14:12	ORD 16:22	35%	17%	2.5%	77%worse than usual
UA 1495 United	RSW 16:35	ORD 18:50	43%	18%	1.9%	no record
AA 2561 American Flight history →	RSW 19:08	ORD 21:26	44%	17%	3.4%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	48m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → ORD 14:27DL 1477	4h 39m	83%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON