Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3628 at 09:25, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3628 Southwest	RSW 09:25	PIT 12:07	6%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	6h 07m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45DL 1363	5h 10m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559	2h 07m Detroit	DTW 22:52 → PIT 00:04 +1DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor	6h 15m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	5h 02m	96%	83%
American Details →	RSW 06:02 → ORD 08:20AA 2613	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → PIT 12:22AA 4467 · flown by Republic	6h 20m	94%	83%
United Details →	RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:59UA 2347	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	6h 39m	97%	81%
United Details →	RSW 08:59 → EWR 12:04UA 2477	3h 56m Newark	EWR 16:00 → PIT 17:37UA 3591 · flown by Republic	8h 38m	99%	80%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:34 → PIT 14:19AA 2664	8h 18m	99%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON