Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 729 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 729 SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 725 SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 729 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ATL 13:49	14%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 819 Delta Flight history →	SAN 22:30	ATL 05:50	16%	3%	0.9%	95%worse than usual
DL 680 Delta Flight history →	SAN 21:43	ATL 04:59	19%	3%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
DL 1179 Delta Flight history →	SAN 08:00	ATL 15:33	21%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 725 Delta Flight history →	SAN 10:36	ATL 18:11	24%	5%	0.8%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON