Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2105 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2105 SAN 06:40 → AUS 11:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4488 SAN 19:45 → AUS 00:43 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2105 Southwest	SAN 06:40	AUS 11:36	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3489 SkyWest	SAN 08:01	AUS 13:02	26%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 3787 United	SAN 10:34	AUS 15:32	28%	8%	1.0%	no record
AS 3292 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:48	AUS 23:00	30%	11%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
WN 9001 Southwest	SAN 09:13	AUS 14:13	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:10	AUS 19:11	33%	12%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
OO 3464 SkyWest	SAN 13:02	AUS 18:16	33%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 4325 Southwest	SAN 12:45	AUS 17:41	36%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 3638 Southwest	SAN 16:20	AUS 21:16	39%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 4488 Southwest	SAN 19:45	AUS 00:43	44%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON