Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 571 at 22:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 571 SAN 22:00 → BOS 06:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 765 SAN 15:00 → BOS 23:23 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 571 Delta Flight history →	SAN 22:00	BOS 06:38	14%	4%	0.8%	85%
AS 255 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 20:52	BOS 05:40	25%	5%	0.8%	85%
AS 389 Alaska	SAN 08:15	BOS 16:44	26%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 2120 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 20:40	BOS 05:19	27%	10%	1.4%	83%worse than usual
B6 220 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 13:06	BOS 21:51	33%	13%	1.1%	74%
WN 765 Southwest	SAN 15:00	BOS 23:23	34%	13%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → BOS 23:59UA 755	8h 02m	79%	61%
United Details →	SAN 10:25 → IAH 15:37UA 1980	1h 08m Houston	IAH 16:45 → BOS 21:27UA 2296	8h 02m	83%	56%
American Details →	SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:30 → BOS 17:11AA 1401	7h 51m	84%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON