tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:17, is the safest bet: 40% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2221 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 11:38 BZN 15:24 42% 10% 1.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 01m Portland PDX 10:30 → BZN 13:10AS 2022 · flown by Horizon 5h 20m 89% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:03 → SEA 10:05DL 2530 2h 12m Seattle SEA 12:17 → BZN 15:14DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 7h 11m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 22m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 33m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 27m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 5h 48m 89% 70%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → BZN 15:20AA 947 8h 00m 95% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 7h 11m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 19m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 41m 94% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572 54m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 59% 45%
DeltaDetails → SAN 19:17 → SLC 22:16DL 1252 49m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 4h 06m 52% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON