Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1651 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1651 SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1785 SAN 13:56 → CLT 21:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1651 American Flight history →	SAN 06:50	CLT 14:49	14%	4%	1.2%	86%
AA 2130 American	SAN 22:42	CLT 06:28	17%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1860 American Flight history →	SAN 21:25	CLT 05:12	19%	4%	1.1%	86%
AA 1785 American	SAN 13:56	CLT 21:50	34%	10%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	7h 02m	94%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON