tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:15, is the safest bet: 53% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3624 Southwest SAN 12:55 CMH 20:20 30% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 3h 40m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 9h 19m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 08m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 8h 19m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → CMH 05:34 +1UA 1160 10h 25m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:16 → PHL 14:42AA 2093 1h 26m Philadelphia PHL 16:08 → CMH 17:49AA 2592 8h 33m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 9h 48m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444 1h 33m Dulles IAD 22:38 → CMH 00:03 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic 8h 06m 88% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 22:03 → CMH 23:40DL 1459 10h 04m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:30 → DFW 16:44AA 2034 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:37 → CMH 21:19AA 1348 6h 49m 67% 39%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 1h 04m Chicago ORD 17:56 → CMH 20:20UA 1278 6h 45m 66% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON