Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 756 at 17:10, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 756 Southwest	SAN 17:10	COS 20:33	39%	13%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:51 → COS 17:35DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	97%	81%
United Details →	SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237	2h 27m Houston	IAH 19:52 → COS 21:29UA 6126 · flown by Mesa	8h 31m	97%	80%
American Details →	SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → COS 14:42AA 1170	7h 22m	96%	65%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	3h 18m Denver	DEN 15:35 → COS 16:32UA 5546 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	97%	62%
American Details →	SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:27 → COS 18:34AA 6267 · flown by SkyWest	7h 44m	95%	56%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	3h 44m Denver	DEN 19:50 → COS 20:46UA 5669 · flown by SkyWest	7h 13m	94%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:59 → COS 22:41DL 3788 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	70%	57%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	49m Denver	DEN 16:55 → COS 17:52UA 5308 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	56%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON