Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3061 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 3061 SAN 06:30 → DAL 11:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3560 SAN 17:55 → DAL 22:58 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3061 Southwest	SAN 06:30	DAL 11:33	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3635 Southwest	SAN 08:42	DAL 13:41	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1402 Southwest	SAN 12:37	DAL 17:36	33%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2026 Southwest	SAN 16:08	DAL 21:11	36%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 3560 Southwest	SAN 17:55	DAL 22:58	39%	11%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON