Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3641 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 3641 SAN 06:16 → DEN 09:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3671 SAN 14:40 → DEN 18:03 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3641 Southwest	SAN 06:16	DEN 09:40	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2829 United	SAN 06:56	DEN 10:24	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2502 Southwest	SAN 07:56	DEN 11:20	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2476 United Flight history →	SAN 08:45	DEN 12:17	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
WN 1936 Southwest	SAN 10:00	DEN 13:23	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 2818 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 06:25	DEN 10:03	21%	5%	1.3%	86%
AS 1342 Alaska	SAN 08:00	DEN 11:22	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2793 United	SAN 11:00	DEN 14:26	24%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 3121 SkyWest	SAN 20:21	DEN 23:49	25%	9%	1.7%	no record
UA 519 United Flight history →	SAN 18:55	DEN 22:27	28%	11%	0.9%	88%worse than usual
WN 1452 Southwest	SAN 11:25	DEN 14:48	30%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4347 Southwest	SAN 20:25	DEN 23:48	33%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 1565 United Flight history →	SAN 12:33	DEN 16:06	36%	13%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AS 635 Alaska	SAN 14:33	DEN 17:53	39%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 682 United Flight history →	SAN 16:07	DEN 19:39	39%	15%	0.9%	77%worse than usual
WN 2019 Southwest	SAN 12:55	DEN 16:18	44%	11%	0.8%	no record
F9 4990 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 16:50	DEN 20:25	45%	15%	1.7%	81%worse than usual
WN 3671 Southwest	SAN 14:40	DEN 18:03	47%	14%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON