Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2361 SAN 16:30 → DFW 21:39 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2535 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DFW 11:35	13%	5%	1.9%	85%
AA 373 American Flight history →	SAN 07:15	DFW 12:30	14%	6%	1.9%	89%
AA 1055 American Flight history →	SAN 08:00	DFW 13:10	20%	7%	1.7%	84%
AS 545 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:52	DFW 15:13	22%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 2687 American Flight history →	SAN 09:50	DFW 15:10	25%	8%	1.8%	84%
AS 689 Alaska	SAN 17:50	DFW 22:53	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	SAN 11:30	DFW 16:44	30%	11%	1.7%	76%
AA 3060 American Flight history →	SAN 15:20	DFW 20:40	34%	13%	1.6%	77%worse than usual
AA 1467 American Flight history →	SAN 12:20	DFW 17:40	35%	11%	1.8%	78%worse than usual
AA 2266 American	SAN 19:26	DFW 00:25	35%	10%	2.6%	no record
AA 1770 American	SAN 14:05	DFW 19:24	36%	13%	1.8%	no record
F9 1770 Frontier	SAN 18:46	DFW 00:01	36%	14%	2.3%	no record
AA 2361 American Flight history →	SAN 16:30	DFW 21:39	40%	14%	1.6%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON