tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 484 at 20:17, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 484 Southwest SAN 20:17 ELP 23:14 41% 11% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 8h 03m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:09UA 2760 1h 11m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 28m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:25 → IAH 15:37UA 1980 1h 21m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 37m 83% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 09m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 6h 34m 81% 67%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:50 → ELP 15:43AA 1681 8h 23m 98% 60%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:20 → DFW 20:40AA 3060 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → ELP 23:46AA 1607 7h 26m 100% 52%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:14 → ELP 19:07AA 555 8h 17m 98% 51%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 38m 94% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:30 → DFW 21:39AA 2361 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → ELP 23:46AA 1607 6h 16m 67% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON