Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1637 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1637 SAN 06:34 → EWR 14:46 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 327 SAN 13:32 → EWR 22:12 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1637 United	SAN 06:34	EWR 14:46	18%	4%	1.4%	no record
UA 427 United Flight history →	SAN 22:30	EWR 06:53	20%	5%	1.6%	84%
UA 1827 United Flight history →	SAN 22:47	EWR 06:55	22%	5%	1.6%	88%worse than usual
AS 297 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:55	EWR 16:36	28%	7%	2.0%	81%
UA 327 United Flight history →	SAN 13:32	EWR 22:12	41%	15%	1.2%	79%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 34m	93%	65%
American Details →	SAN 19:30 → PHX 21:02AA 2950	1h 12m Phoenix	PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156	7h 30m	79%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON