Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3084 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3084 SAN 08:45 → FAT 10:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 879 SAN 21:22 → FAT 22:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3084 Southwest	SAN 08:45	FAT 10:08	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 09:39	FAT 11:06	22%	10%	1.4%	83%
OO 847 SkyWest	SAN 22:19	FAT 23:46	26%	9%	1.7%	no record
OO 3021 SkyWest	SAN 16:59	FAT 18:26	26%	12%	1.5%	no record
OO 3051 SkyWest	SAN 19:03	FAT 20:30	27%	12%	1.7%	no record
WN 879 Southwest	SAN 21:22	FAT 22:45	35%	11%	1.0%	no record
AS 2208 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 08:44	FAT 10:05	22%	4%	1.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON