tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 566 Alaska Flight history → SAN 20:22 GEG 23:07 29% 7% 0.9% 83%worse than usual
WN 2327 Southwest SAN 16:25 GEG 19:08 33% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 3h 47m Portland PDX 17:30 → GEG 18:44AS 452 7h 40m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 5h 57m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:36 → SEA 16:32DL 2533 3h 25m Seattle SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest 7h 37m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 01m Portland PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250 4h 55m 89% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 15:25 → GEG 16:08DL 1503 6h 22m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508 1h 25m Seattle SEA 15:40 → GEG 16:55DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 5h 49m 92% 74%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466 6h 54m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392 1h 19m Portland PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59AS 1356 5h 01m 83% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 19:17 → SLC 22:16DL 1252 59m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466 4h 38m 65% 47%
DeltaDetails → SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572 52m Seattle SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest 5h 02m 56% 44%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 18:27 → SEA 21:14AS 683 1h 01m Seattle SEA 22:15 → GEG 23:18AS 347 4h 51m 50% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON