Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4998 at 09:42 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4998 SAN 09:42 → HNL 12:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 815 SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4998 Southwest	SAN 09:42	HNL 12:51	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 828 Alaska	SAN 17:13	HNL 20:26	33%	10%	2.0%	no record
WN 608 Southwest	SAN 18:21	HNL 21:38	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 94 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:08	HNL 14:08	38%	8%	1.9%	77%worse than usual
AS 815 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:07	HNL 12:18	39%	8%	1.9%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 06:15 → SFO 07:59UA 2830	1h 21m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 28m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:37 → KOA 14:23AS 222	1h 48m Kailua/Kona	KOA 16:11 → HNL 17:13AS 1127	8h 36m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	8h 49m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON