Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1071 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1071 SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 444 SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1071 United Flight history →	SAN 08:00	IAD 16:08	16%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 2129 United Flight history →	SAN 21:59	IAD 05:59	18%	4%	0.9%	89%
AS 506 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:34	IAD 18:45	25%	5%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
UA 444 United Flight history →	SAN 12:57	IAD 21:05	28%	8%	0.8%	87%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787	7h 26m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	7h 14m	86%	60%
United Details →	SAN 10:25 → IAH 15:37UA 1980	58m Houston	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	7h 21m	80%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON