Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1980 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1980 SAN 10:25 → IAH 15:37 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2025 SAN 16:46 → IAH 21:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1980 United Flight history →	SAN 10:25	IAH 15:37	17%	6%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
UA 2760 United Flight history →	SAN 07:57	IAH 13:09	17%	6%	0.8%	89%
UA 2237 United Flight history →	SAN 11:58	IAH 17:25	22%	10%	0.7%	79%
UA 618 United Flight history →	SAN 15:10	IAH 20:31	23%	10%	0.7%	66%
UA 2025 United	SAN 16:46	IAH 21:59	27%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON