tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 882 at 11:55, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 882 Southwest SAN 11:55 IND 18:55 27% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:16 → PHL 14:42AA 2093 3h 37m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 29m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Los Angeles LAX 09:05 → IND 16:10DL 861 6h 55m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 23:35 → IND 07:11 +1UA 1726 9h 44m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 41m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456 9h 02m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → IND 17:36DL 2979 8h 21m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 22:01 → IND 23:41DL 3153 10h 05m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674 9h 28m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:09UA 2760 3h 26m Houston IAH 16:35 → IND 20:03UA 6132 · flown by Mesa 9h 06m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 10:01 → IND 17:11UA 2274 7h 01m 73% 49%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:30 → DFW 16:44AA 2034 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:51 → IND 21:00AA 2784 6h 30m 74% 40%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:04 → ORD 16:18AA 2343 54m Chicago ORD 17:12 → IND 19:33AA 2418 6h 29m 60% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON