Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 24 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day AS 24 SAN 07:00 → JFK 15:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 190 SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 24 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	JFK 15:49	18%	4%	1.2%	89%
DL 709 Delta Flight history →	SAN 21:55	JFK 06:23	20%	5%	1.8%	87%
DL 367 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:29	JFK 16:19	20%	6%	1.2%	87%
B6 1190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 20:30	JFK 05:04	30%	9%	2.6%	88%worse than usual
DL 683 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:05	JFK 22:04	34%	11%	1.0%	76%
B6 190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 11:51	JFK 20:30	36%	12%	1.5%	81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 09:06 → JFK 17:06DL 934	7h 51m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	50m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 40m	81%	66%
Delta Details →	SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 23:15 → JFK 01:32 +1DL 2692	7h 13m	97%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON