Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 11:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 222 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:37	KOA 14:23	21%	5%	0.6%	96%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	3h 33m San Francisco	SFO 18:52 → KOA 21:41UA 1723	11h 02m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:08 → HNL 14:08AS 94	3h 22m Honolulu	HNL 17:30 → KOA 18:16AS 1158	10h 08m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:00 → OGG 13:50AS 232	2h 04m Kahului	OGG 15:54 → KOA 16:28AS 1250	8h 28m	94%	76%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 56m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	9h 54m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	SAN 13:17 → SEA 16:02AS 1368	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → KOA 21:03AS 238	10h 46m	85%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 18:52 → KOA 21:41UA 1723	8h 32m	67%	55%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:08 → HNL 14:08AS 94	1h 06m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	7h 53m	70%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON