Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1553 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–57%.

Safest bet that day WN 1553 SAN 07:00 → LAS 08:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4263 SAN 19:03 → LAS 20:27 · 57% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1553 Southwest	SAN 07:00	LAS 08:24	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 4349 Southwest	SAN 08:23	LAS 09:47	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 437 Southwest	SAN 10:23	LAS 11:47	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 1063 Southwest	SAN 11:13	LAS 12:37	32%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 551 Southwest	SAN 11:58	LAS 13:22	39%	9%	1.0%	no record
OO 3323 SkyWest	SAN 22:00	LAS 23:27	42%	11%	1.4%	no record
WN 2211 Southwest	SAN 22:35	LAS 23:58	44%	12%	1.2%	no record
WN 2769 Southwest	SAN 15:30	LAS 16:54	45%	14%	1.0%	no record
WN 1711 Southwest	SAN 14:15	LAS 15:39	47%	17%	1.0%	no record
OO 3932 SkyWest	SAN 16:18	LAS 17:39	48%	16%	1.0%	no record
WN 1897 Southwest	SAN 17:23	LAS 18:47	51%	17%	1.0%	no record
WN 1962 Southwest	SAN 16:45	LAS 18:09	53%	18%	1.0%	no record
WN 4230 Southwest	SAN 20:50	LAS 22:14	54%	17%	1.1%	no record
F9 1326 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 20:51	LAS 22:21	57%	25%	2.3%	57%worse than usual
WN 4263 Southwest	SAN 19:03	LAS 20:27	57%	18%	1.1%	no record
AS 2281 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:05	LAS 10:31	15%	0%	7.7%	85%
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 17:15	LAS 18:41	41%	20%	4.5%	59%
AS 2092 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:13	LAS 17:39	43%	13%	1.5%	57%
AS 2255 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 12:30	LAS 13:58	44%	9%	4.4%	56%
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%
AS 2305 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 22:02	LAS 23:28	73%	0%	13.3%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON