Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 11:08, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 220 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:05	LIH 11:28	20%	4%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SAN 11:08 → HNL 14:08AS 94	4h 00m Honolulu	HNL 18:08 → LIH 19:02AS 1153	10h 54m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 47m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	3h 01m Honolulu	HNL 15:19 → LIH 16:13AS 1113	10h 06m	98%	73%
United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	1h 36m San Francisco	SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684	9h 03m	84%	69%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15DL 2508	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 52m	92%	68%
Alaska Details →	SAN 13:17 → SEA 16:02AS 1368	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237	11h 08m	86%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:08 → HNL 14:08AS 94	1h 11m Honolulu	HNL 15:19 → LIH 16:13AS 1113	8h 05m	73%	54%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	51m Honolulu	HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:03AS 1083	7h 56m	46%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON