tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1191 at 21:33, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1191 Southwest SAN 21:33 MCI 02:42 34% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 2h 26m Portland PDX 11:55 → MCI 17:19AS 225 8h 29m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:35 → MCI 14:50DL 1517 6h 35m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 54m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 5h 42m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 06m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 8h 39m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 2h 01m Dulles IAD 18:09 → MCI 20:02UA 1165 10h 02m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 15m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:10 → MCI 18:59AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 8h 59m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 50m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903 5h 19m 56% 42%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 51m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 +1DL 2993 5h 12m 59% 40%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:30 → DFW 21:39AA 2361 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 5h 53m 59% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON