tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 11:58, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4431 Southwest SAN 06:30 MCO 14:15 12% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 2727 Southwest SAN 13:45 MCO 21:29 35% 12% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 10h 13m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:03 → SEA 17:51AS 685 3h 38m Seattle SEA 21:29 → MCO 05:52 +1AS 390 11h 49m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 9h 10m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444 1h 28m Dulles IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 +1UA 689 9h 04m 87% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → SFO 07:59UA 2830 58m San Francisco SFO 08:57 → MCO 17:30UA 583 8h 15m 88% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 59m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:09UA 2760 4h 00m Houston IAH 17:09 → MCO 20:48UA 1571 9h 51m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 12:31 → MCO 20:47UA 1939 10h 37m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 49m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35DL 2881 6h 59m 56% 34%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:17AA 2186 6h 57m 56% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON