Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Medford on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest	5h 25m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	92%	75%
Alaska Details →	SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576	1h 05m Portland	PDX 14:48 → MFR 16:05AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest	5h 01m	85%	73%
Alaska Details →	SAN 13:18 → SEA 16:04AS 1368	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon	5h 55m	85%	71%
Alaska Details →	SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392	1h 33m Portland	PDX 22:04 → MFR 23:06AS 2266 · flown by Horizon	5h 08m	88%	69%
Delta Details →	SAN 07:03 → SEA 10:05DL 2530	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 11:18 → MFR 12:59DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	85%	68%
United Details →	SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117	3h 20m San Francisco	SFO 21:09 → MFR 22:34UA 1219	6h 25m	98%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 21:09 → MFR 22:34UA 1219	4h 07m	63%	44%
United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 16:22 → MFR 17:51UA 5706 · flown by SkyWest	4h 12m	64%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON