Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 49% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1802 American	SAN 22:45	MIA 06:49	21%	5%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SAN 19:30 → PHX 21:02AA 2950	2h 41m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → MIA 07:19 +1AA 3224	8h 49m	100%	76%
United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	10h 12m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 39m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 47m	91%	69%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	10h 03m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367	3h 36m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	13h 08m	96%	67%
United Details →	SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274	3h 28m San Francisco	SFO 12:24 → MIA 21:10UA 1458	11h 00m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811	8h 52m	98%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 19:41 → SFO 21:28UA 2278	1h 26m San Francisco	SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769	8h 58m	70%	53%
American Details →	SAN 15:20 → DFW 20:40AA 3060	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → MIA 01:23 +1AA 9791	7h 03m	61%	35%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179	52m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:22DL 719	7h 22m	64%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON