tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Missoula on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:49 → MSO 00:24 +1DL 1824 6h 23m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 7h 28m 99% 58%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 13:18 → SEA 16:04AS 1368 3h 32m Seattle SEA 19:36 → MSO 22:02AS 604 7h 44m 90% 57%
DeltaDetails → SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191 54m Minneapolis MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610 7h 25m 77% 52%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 25m Denver DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092 8h 07m 94% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON