tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 10:25, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4031 Southwest SAN 14:25 MSY 20:29 32% 12% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:09UA 2760 1h 53m Houston IAH 15:02 → MSY 16:32UA 2738 6h 35m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 2h 03m Dulles IAD 18:11 → MSY 20:06UA 251 10h 06m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 42m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Los Angeles LAX 10:20 → MSY 16:10DL 2096 7h 55m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:07 → MSY 22:37DL 2072 10h 01m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 41m Houston IAH 20:06 → MSY 21:27UA 2161 7h 29m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 45m San Francisco SFO 16:32 → MSY 22:47UA 1244 9h 46m 100% 67%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 17:47 → MSY 18:26DL 678 8h 26m 94% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 16:32 → MSY 22:47UA 1244 7h 08m 73% 48%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:20 → DFW 20:40AA 3060 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:33 → MSY 23:16AA 1455 5h 56m 66% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON