Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 339 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 339 SAN 06:40 → OAK 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4866 SAN 20:48 → OAK 22:26 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 339 Southwest	SAN 06:40	OAK 08:18	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3660 Southwest	SAN 08:51	OAK 10:29	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 3182 Southwest	SAN 10:11	OAK 11:49	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 539 Southwest	SAN 11:36	OAK 13:14	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 1776 Southwest	SAN 12:11	OAK 13:49	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 3050 SkyWest	SAN 12:21	OAK 14:03	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 4241 Southwest	SAN 15:16	OAK 16:54	30%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4240 Southwest	SAN 17:29	OAK 19:07	35%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1496 Southwest	SAN 21:29	OAK 23:07	37%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1204 Southwest	SAN 18:46	OAK 20:24	39%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 4866 Southwest	SAN 20:48	OAK 22:26	40%	12%	0.8%	no record
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON