Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 483 SAN 18:55 → OGG 21:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 623 SAN 11:00 → OGG 13:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 483 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:55	OGG 21:55	23%	7%	0.8%	85%
AS 232 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:00	OGG 13:50	27%	6%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 623 Southwest	SAN 11:00	OGG 13:56	29%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309	1h 18m San Francisco	SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623	8h 35m	85%	66%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	1h 24m Honolulu	HNL 13:42 → OGG 14:36AS 1126	8h 29m	87%	62%
United Details →	SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573	8h 24m	76%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON