Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 518 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 518 SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 1478 SAN 12:40 → ORD 18:57 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 518 American Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ORD 12:47	14%	6%	1.3%	89%
UA 1016 United	SAN 06:32	ORD 12:41	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 540 United	SAN 22:32	ORD 04:39	16%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 3770 United	SAN 22:47	ORD 04:51	17%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2065 American Flight history →	SAN 22:53	ORD 05:07	20%	8%	1.8%	85%
AS 1446 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	ORD 13:21	29%	6%	2.0%	75%
AA 2054 American	SAN 07:25	ORD 13:39	29%	10%	2.4%	no record
AS 1493 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:23	ORD 23:36	35%	13%	2.0%	70%
UA 2486 United Flight history →	SAN 16:41	ORD 22:59	37%	19%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
AA 2343 American Flight history →	SAN 10:04	ORD 16:18	38%	16%	2.2%	82%worse than usual
UA 1710 United Flight history →	SAN 10:35	ORD 16:52	39%	17%	1.1%	82%worse than usual
UA 1068 United	SAN 14:10	ORD 20:25	42%	25%	1.1%	no record
AA 2131 American Flight history →	SAN 13:06	ORD 19:19	48%	25%	1.7%	65%worse than usual
AS 1478 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:40	ORD 18:57	51%	18%	2.3%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON