Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 399 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day AS 399 SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 423 SAN 18:00 → PDX 20:34 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 399 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:50	PDX 09:29	11%	2%	1.2%	94%
WN 738 Southwest	SAN 08:50	PDX 11:26	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 576 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:04	PDX 13:43	20%	3%	1.0%	88%
AS 1321 Alaska	SAN 15:41	PDX 18:14	27%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 1402 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:03	PDX 16:36	28%	5%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
AS 1392 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:58	PDX 20:31	31%	5%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AS 794 Alaska	SAN 21:16	PDX 23:51	32%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 423 Southwest	SAN 18:00	PDX 20:34	42%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON