Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2093 American Flight history →	SAN 06:16	PHL 14:42	15%	4%	1.0%	96%worse than usual
AA 433 American Flight history →	SAN 09:21	PHL 17:45	29%	8%	0.9%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SAN 19:30 → PHX 21:02AA 2950	2h 24m Phoenix	PHX 23:26 → PHL 07:16 +1AA 2301	8h 46m	100%	81%
United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	3h 13m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → PHL 07:50 +1UA 2854	10h 23m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	8h 44m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	9h 08m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	2h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	8h 24m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	8h 39m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	SAN 15:03 → SEA 17:51AS 685	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 21:31 → PHL 05:42 +1AS 371	11h 39m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	3h 52m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686	10h 10m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	7h 37m	63%	35%
United Details →	SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	7h 44m	71%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON