Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1854 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1854 SAN 06:56 → PHX 08:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2084 SAN 18:49 → PHX 20:20 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1854 Southwest	SAN 06:56	PHX 08:19	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 1212 American	SAN 06:17	PHX 07:43	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3344 Southwest	SAN 08:51	PHX 10:14	17%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 704 Southwest	SAN 11:01	PHX 12:24	28%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 3327 American	SAN 09:46	PHX 11:12	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 8501 Southwest	SAN 11:43	PHX 12:57	33%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 4108 Southwest	SAN 12:01	PHX 13:24	33%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 3144 SkyWest	SAN 07:54	PHX 09:20	33%	10%	2.9%	no record
AA 3124 American	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:39	38%	11%	0.9%	no record
OO 3309 SkyWest	SAN 13:32	PHX 14:58	38%	13%	2.2%	no record
WN 3669 Southwest	SAN 16:22	PHX 17:45	39%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 343 Southwest	SAN 14:32	PHX 15:55	40%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 3382 Southwest	SAN 17:27	PHX 18:50	40%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 3200 Southwest	SAN 21:45	PHX 23:08	41%	13%	1.2%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	SAN 16:07	PHX 17:32	44%	13%	0.9%	74%worse than usual
WN 3401 Southwest	SAN 18:37	PHX 20:00	44%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 3670 Southwest	SAN 19:42	PHX 21:05	44%	13%	1.0%	no record
AA 2950 American Flight history →	SAN 19:30	PHX 21:02	46%	17%	1.2%	70%worse than usual
F9 2084 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 18:49	PHX 20:20	47%	18%	1.3%	76%worse than usual
AS 2024 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:31	50%	12%	0.0%	50%
AS 2049 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:19	PHX 22:39	64%	32%	15.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON