Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3334 at 13:56, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3334 SAN 13:56 → RDM 16:22 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3334 SkyWest	SAN 13:56	RDM 16:22	16%	8%	1.7%	no record
AS 2086 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 10:05	RDM 12:25	34%	7%	2.9%	66%
AS 2223 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 19:48	RDM 22:09	63%	24%	1.9%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON