Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3655 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3655 SAN 06:35 → RNO 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 754 SAN 21:20 → RNO 23:02 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3655 Southwest	SAN 06:35	RNO 08:18	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3531 Southwest	SAN 12:36	RNO 14:17	27%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 3578 Southwest	SAN 17:30	RNO 19:11	34%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 754 Southwest	SAN 21:20	RNO 23:02	34%	12%	1.0%	no record
AS 2233 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:16	RNO 22:04	53%	27%	9.1%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON