tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3662 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3662 Southwest SAN 10:10 SAT 15:02 23% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 957 Southwest SAN 19:48 SAT 00:38 36% 11% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 8h 51m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 6h 38m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:09UA 2760 1h 43m Houston IAH 14:52 → SAT 16:12UA 2030 6h 15m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 37m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 10h 22m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 8h 56m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 12:24 → SAT 18:05UA 2365 8h 55m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 16:20 → SAT 21:56UA 8140 8h 55m 100% 70%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:51 → SAT 15:11AA 791 6h 51m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 16:20 → SAT 21:56UA 8140 6h 17m 63% 44%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:30 → DFW 21:39AA 2361 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 5h 28m 63% 33%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → SAT 19:45AA 2368 5h 25m 52% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON