Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2508 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–53%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 884 SAN 17:20 → SEA 20:07 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:06	SEA 14:15	19%	4%	1.0%	90%
DL 2530 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:03	SEA 10:05	22%	5%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AS 608 Alaska	SAN 06:13	SEA 09:03	22%	3%	1.5%	no record
WN 3694 Southwest	SAN 08:40	SEA 11:32	28%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:36	SEA 16:32	28%	6%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:00	SEA 22:03	29%	7%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	32%	7%	1.2%	87%worse than usual
AS 792 Alaska	SAN 09:20	SEA 12:09	34%	5%	1.5%	no record
AS 685 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:03	SEA 17:51	36%	8%	2.1%	82%worse than usual
AS 1366 Alaska	SAN 11:12	SEA 14:01	38%	5%	1.6%	no record
AS 622 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:08	SEA 23:58	40%	7%	1.8%	83%worse than usual
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 13:18	SEA 16:04	41%	6%	1.9%	85%worse than usual
AS 1373 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 19:27	SEA 22:14	43%	9%	1.9%	93%worse than usual
AS 692 Alaska	SAN 17:20	SEA 20:08	48%	9%	1.9%	no record
AS 683 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:27	SEA 21:14	51%	10%	2.0%	75%worse than usual
WN 884 Southwest	SAN 17:20	SEA 20:07	53%	13%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON