Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 609 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 609 SAN 07:45 → SJC 09:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2964 SAN 19:35 → SJC 21:10 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 609 Southwest	SAN 07:45	SJC 09:20	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2780 Southwest	SAN 08:42	SJC 10:17	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4915 Southwest	SAN 09:42	SJC 11:17	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4261 Southwest	SAN 10:47	SJC 12:22	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3313 SkyWest	SAN 17:52	SJC 19:30	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
QX 2498 Horizon	SAN 09:51	SJC 11:30	27%	5%	2.4%	no record
OO 3147 SkyWest	SAN 16:06	SJC 17:44	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 432 Alaska	SAN 13:21	SJC 14:53	29%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3307 Southwest	SAN 13:16	SJC 14:51	29%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 854 Southwest	SAN 15:51	SJC 17:26	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4918 Southwest	SAN 14:01	SJC 15:36	32%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 1308 Alaska	SAN 21:14	SJC 22:47	36%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 3705 Southwest	SAN 22:01	SJC 23:35	41%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4264 Southwest	SAN 18:05	SJC 19:39	41%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 222 Southwest	SAN 18:50	SJC 20:25	41%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 3784 Southwest	SAN 21:11	SJC 22:46	41%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 2964 Southwest	SAN 19:35	SJC 21:10	42%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON