Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1117 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 1117 SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1085 SAN 19:05 → SLC 22:07 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1117 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	SLC 09:20	10%	3%	0.8%	96%
WN 3485 Southwest	SAN 08:45	SLC 11:46	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SAN 09:46	SLC 12:50	19%	4%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
OO 3118 SkyWest	SAN 08:22	SLC 11:29	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:15	SLC 16:18	25%	6%	0.9%	87%worse than usual
AS 3017 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 18:49	SLC 21:57	29%	11%	1.5%	73%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SAN 17:01	SLC 19:59	30%	8%	1.8%	82%worse than usual
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:17	SLC 22:16	34%	10%	1.6%	90%worse than usual
AS 3488 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:54	SLC 19:02	35%	10%	2.1%	81%worse than usual
WN 1085 Southwest	SAN 19:05	SLC 22:07	43%	12%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON