Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3689 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–49%.

Safest bet that day WN 3689 SAN 06:15 → SMF 07:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3712 SAN 19:26 → SMF 21:08 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3689 Southwest	SAN 06:15	SMF 07:58	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2473 Southwest	SAN 07:45	SMF 09:28	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 347 Southwest	SAN 08:18	SMF 10:01	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2873 Southwest	SAN 10:38	SMF 12:21	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3252 SkyWest	SAN 08:52	SMF 10:40	27%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 2968 Southwest	SAN 11:53	SMF 13:36	28%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:32	SMF 19:19	31%	10%	1.1%	80%worse than usual
OO 3360 SkyWest	SAN 12:22	SMF 14:09	33%	9%	1.0%	no record
AS 428 Alaska	SAN 20:41	SMF 22:21	35%	10%	1.7%	no record
AS 349 Alaska	SAN 15:36	SMF 17:18	35%	9%	1.5%	no record
WN 3064 Southwest	SAN 13:05	SMF 14:48	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3691 Southwest	SAN 15:55	SMF 17:38	41%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 3461 Southwest	SAN 16:35	SMF 18:18	44%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 4273 Southwest	SAN 21:57	SMF 23:39	45%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 4272 Southwest	SAN 18:16	SMF 19:59	47%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 4957 Southwest	SAN 20:57	SMF 22:40	48%	14%	0.8%	no record
WN 3712 Southwest	SAN 19:26	SMF 21:08	49%	14%	0.8%	no record
AS 2100 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 07:44	SMF 09:36	18%	9%	2.2%	82%
AS 2334 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:56	SMF 18:38	43%	12%	0.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON