tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AS 506 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 506 Alaska SAN 10:04 STL 15:45 22% 5% 1.5% no record
WN 2348 Southwest SAN 13:30 STL 19:10 34% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:09UA 2760 2h 22m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 30m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 57m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 09m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 7h 51m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 3h 05m Houston IAH 20:30 → STL 22:45UA 6187 · flown by Mesa 8h 47m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 10h 04m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:10 → SFO 08:56UA 2274 3h 58m San Francisco SFO 12:54 → STL 18:59UA 1905 9h 49m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:44 → STL 16:37AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 8h 17m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 50m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 7h 00m 61% 47%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 51m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 +1DL 2666 5h 40m 58% 40%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 1h 03m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 6h 48m 65% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON