tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2321 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 09:16 TUL 14:30 37% 10% 0.0% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:09UA 2760 3h 21m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 8h 11m 100% 99%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 49m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 7h 54m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 38m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → TUL 19:53AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 8h 03m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:25 → IAH 15:37UA 1980 2h 43m Houston IAH 18:20 → TUL 20:00UA 3991 · flown by Mesa 7h 35m 90% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 11m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 6h 05m 82% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 23m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 44m 89% 68%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 04m 89% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:25 → IAH 15:37UA 1980 53m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 5h 43m 67% 67%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → TUL 19:53AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 5h 33m 64% 46%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:30 → DFW 21:39AA 2361 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 5h 17m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON