tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2942 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2942 Southwest SAN 09:00 TUS 10:30 15% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1307 Southwest SAN 21:45 TUS 23:11 34% 10% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:15 → SFO 07:59UA 2830 2h 10m San Francisco SFO 10:09 → TUS 12:30UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 98% 66%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:07 → PHX 17:32AA 1951 3h 17m Phoenix PHX 20:49 → TUS 21:48AA 6309 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 86% 59%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584 7h 01m 89% 53%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:36 → TUS 19:52AA 1207 7h 32m 88% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:03 → SEA 17:51AS 685 1h 08m Seattle SEA 18:59 → TUS 22:01AS 638 6h 58m 70% 46%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:07 → PHX 17:32AA 1951 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 18:42 → TUS 19:40AA 6457 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m 58% 41%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:30 → DFW 21:39AA 2361 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:49 → TUS 23:19AA 1580 6h 49m 63% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON